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Quick Hits: Overvalued or Undervalued

As a quick preamble for dynasty players, most of this overvalued or undervalued analysis is done through a one-year lens. What’s important to consider, is the power of recency bias in player valuations. How each of these players performs during the 2020 season will undoubtedly have an impact on their perceived long-term value with each passing week. Depending on the contending status of your team, you can utilize these situations to acquire or unload players prior to shifts in valuation.

Quarterback

Undervalued: Carson Wentz, Philadelphia
ADP QB11, Dynasty QB9

At his current ADP of QB11 in redraft and QB9 in dynasty, there’s a lot to love about Carson Wentz in 2020 and beyond. No stranger to fantasy players, Wentz has been a solid, yet unspectacular contributor over the past couple seasons. Below are some of Wentz’s passing statistics through the first four seasons of his NFL career.

YearGPCompletionsAttemptsYardsAY/AANY/AFP/G
20161637960737825.75.0913.31 (28th)
20171326544032968.37.4321.83 (2nd)
20181127940130747.96.8917.51 (17th)
20191638860740397.06.2617.68 (13th)

As we can see, Wentz only has one stellar fantasy season to his name thus far. So, what exactly makes him undervalued going off the board at QB11 in redraft and QB9 in dynasty? In order to keep things brief, I’ve chosen just a few of the tailwinds that should benefit Wentz in 2020.

First, Wentz will once again team up with offensive mastermind Doug Pederson to orchestrate another uptempo offense. For reference, the Eagles have finished among the top 10 in offensive plays per game in each of Wentz’s four seasons. Given the consistency of this trend, there’s no reason to worry that the Eagles will begin limiting the number of offensive plays they run per game. As fantasy players know, more volume equates to more fantasy production.

Second, Wentz will enter the 2020 season with the best supporting cast of his career. To date, Wentz has done an exceptional job of turning mediocrity into manageable. This season, with the support of Ertz, Goedert, Sanders, Reagor, Jackson and Jeffery there’s plenty of reason for optimism. Throw in the outside chance that JJAW, Ward, Hightower or Watkins step up and we’re looking at an explosive passing attack in Philly.

Third, the Eagles again find themselves with an average defense and plenty of strong opponents. They’ll find themselves in plenty of shootouts next year and all that does is position Wentz for fantasy success.

Finally, owners should also expect Wentz to provide decent rushing production as he’s averaged 14 rushing yards per game through his 56 starts. 

Running Back

Overvalued: Nick Chubb, Cleveland
ADP RB8, Dynasty RB8

I like Nick Chubb and he’s really good at football.

Having said that, there is a price at which every player’s risk/reward outlook becomes unfavorable. Nick Chubb is currently in that position. Look at it this way, Chubb finished last season as the RB8 on a fantasy points per game basis while benefiting from the eight-game absence of Kareem Hunt. Below are his splits with and without Hunt.

GPTotal YDSReceptionsTDSnap %FP/G
896425677.917.4 (5th)
Without Hunt
GPTotal YDSReceptionsTDSnap %FP/G
880811264.812.3 (21st)
With Hunt

Simply put, I’m not inspired by what I see with Hunt in the lineup. His presence should absolutely be considered a downgrade for Chubb’s fantasy outlook and anyone who believes otherwise is taking a low probability bet based on what we’ve seen.

I could pull up some obscure stats, coaching tendencies, etc. to support this argument but quite often the simplest explanations are the right ones. With an ADP of RB8, Chubb would need to perform in line with how he did last season and possibly better to outperform. Conversely, a full season of numbers similar to when Hunt was in the lineup will be sure to leave owners disappointed.

Wide Receiver

Undervalued: Robert Woods, Los Angeles Rams
ADP WR21, Dynasty WR28

Somehow, Robert Woods is going off the board as the WR21 in redraft right now. That’s borderline insane. Take a look at some of his stats from last season:

TargetsReceptionsYardsYACTrue Catch RateTDFP/G
140 (8th)90 (8th)1134 (14th)560 (2nd)89.1% (11th)3 (59th)12.5 (18th)

Woods did all that while posting the second lowest TD total of his NFL career. In addition to that, Woods missed one game last season and still finished as the WR17 overall in 0.5 PPR scoring.

This season, fantasy players should anticipate those numbers being more of a floor for Woods provided he stays healthy. Why is that? Not only does Woods return to the same offense that he’s excelled with in the past two seasons but, Brandin Cooks has also left town. With his departure, Woods will slide into the WR1 role while Cooper Kupp still figures to spend a large portion of his time in the slot. While Cooks’ effectiveness last season is up for debate, there’s no debating that his departure will free up more targets for Woods in 2020. 

This is another situation where over analyzing could prove costly. Woods is poised to once again offer fantasy players an excellent floor and remarkably high ceiling, especially for the price.

Tight End

Overvalued: Hunter Henry, Los Angeles Chargers
ADP TE6, Dynasty TE6

Hunter Henry is another great player who’s unfortunately priced for perfection. Going off the board at TE6 in both redraft and dynasty, there’s a ton of optimism baked into Henry’s current price. In order for him to return value, a lot needs to go right. First, Henry will have to play a complete 16 games which he’s yet to do at this point in his NFL career. If he’s able to do that, Henry will also have to take a big step forward from his performance on the field last year. Below are some of his receiving stats from last season.

GPTargetsReceptionsYardsY/GFP/G
12765565254.310.2 (10th)

So, you’re telling me that we’re drafting Henry as the 6th TE off the board when his best fantasy season saw him finish as the TE10 on a fantasy points per game basis? Add in his preexisting health concerns, and it becomes a real hail mary.

Furthermore, Henry now transitions from the only QB he’s known in Philip Rivers to an unpredictable medley of Tyrod Taylor and Justin Herbert. Regardless of who wins the QB battle and opens the season as the starter, it’s a safe bet to assume that the Chargers will be airing the ball out less than in recent years.

At TE6, fantasy owners will need to see a career year from Henry in order to recoup their acquisition cost at his current ADP. While there are no sure things in fantasy, Henry underperforming his ADP sure feels like one.

My previous Overvalued or Undervalued piece can be read here for those of you who are interested fantasyfuru.com/2020/07/22/quick-hits-overvalued-or-undervalued/

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